The biosecurity crossroads: Decline or dominance

By Matthew McKnight

This is a lightly edited excerpt of testimony recently provided to the U.S. House’s Energy and Commerce Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing titled, “Examining Biosecurity at the Intersection of AI and Biology.”

We stand at a definitive crossroads regarding our biological security. Two scenarios — both plausible — paint starkly different futures for the United States and its allies.

1. The biological event ending the American century

The following scenario is not difficult to imagine: a decade from now, a fast-moving respiratory virus erupts in Southeast Asia, killing 4-6% of those infected, mostly children and young adults. Yet again, U.S. and WHO surveillance falter and the pathogen spreads globally before its severity is fully understood by authorities. Though the origins of the virus aren’t clear, Beijing, after decades of biotech investment, unveils a 90 percent-effective vaccine clearly developed before the first public cases and trades doses for strategic concessions. Washington must queue behind China’s partners and accept unfavorable terms while deaths mount and markets crater.  

In Washington, there is outrage but no real choice. Lack of preparedness and an inability to independently produce and manufacture countermeasures have led to a full-blown national crisis. Overnight, the center of geopolitical gravity tilts east, proving that whoever controls biology and biosecurity controls the balance of power.

Questions are asked: How did America not know about China’s vaccine development program, or the risky gain-of-function research that was (perhaps) linked to it? Why weren’t we prepared to respond? But the intelligence failure doesn’t matter; it’s too late.

2. Allied biosecurity and shared prosperity 

At this same crossroads, an alternate scenario is also plausible: By 2035, the U.S. and its allies operate Biothreat Radar, a global sensor grid and biological intelligence (BIOINT) cloud that turns bio-signals into real-time threat intelligence. Tamper-proof DNA synthesis audits and pervasive monitoring make clandestine engineering nearly impossible. Nations that decline membership still live under the network's optics. Cross-border air sampling, satellite-linked monitors on air transit, and biosensors at ports ensure compliance even beyond alliance borders.

When a novel avian flu appears in a member state, it's rapidly sequenced and flagged. BIOINT confirms its natural origin and auto-generates vaccine designs. Distributed manufacturing across allied bio foundries initiates production almost immediately, containing the outbreak before travel disruptions take hold. The global public remains calm.  

This swift, coordinated response reflects a decade of investment in secure data sharing, distributed production, and harmonized regulation. The same infrastructure that deters risky research and defends against biothreats now also powers a new era of bio-abundance — tailored vaccines, sustainable crops and economic resilience, shared across the alliance.

One future is characterized by dependence, instability and defeat. The other, sovereignty, resilience and leadership.

Read the full testimony here.

Matthew McKnight is the General Manager of Ginkgo Biosecurity.

_{*The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of HealthPlatform.News.}