NIH rewrites the pandemic playbook Image By HPN Staff Key Points Jay Bhattacharya and Matthew Memoli argue the traditional U.S. pandemic playbook failed, criticizing gain-of-function research, pathogen hunting, and stockpiling speculative vaccines in favor of focusing on known threats. The authors emphasize that chronic diseases such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and COPD sharply increased COVID-19 mortality risk, making everyday health improvements a critical line of defense. Rather than relying on emergency measures like lockdowns, Bhattacharya and Memoli argue that reducing chronic disease, improving baseline health, and strengthening responses to existing pathogens is the most effective preparation for future pandemics. National Institutes of Health (NIH) Jay Bhattacharya and NIH Principal Deputy Director Matthew J. Memoli set off a firestorm in November by declaring it time to “stop wasting money on the traditional [pandemic] playbook.” Bhattacharya and Memoli argued in The City Journal that the U.S. approach to preventing and dealing with COVID-19 “failed catastrophically,” and described the old playbook as having three risky steps. Bringing back pathogens from remote areas in the wild to labs often located in cities. Conducting “dangerous gain-of-function” research on the pathogens to estimate which pose the highest risk to humans. Stockpiling speculative vaccines and therapeutics with lucrative contracts based on those guesses. Instead, they urged strengthening overall health and improving responses to known pathogens. Why it matters COVID-19 reduced U.S. life expectancy and caused massive social and economic disruption, making it vital to understand what went wrong and how to prepare more effectively for future pandemics. A key part of Bhattacharya and Memoli’s new playbook involves reducing chronic disease by encouraging healthier habits. The two noted Sweden, “without lockdown or school closures,” had the lowest level of excess deaths in the world between March 2020 and December 2024, in part because its citizens are healthier. People with underlying health conditions were more likely to die than others when they contracted COVID-19, up to four times as likely. Many of these conditions develop from lifestyle-related choices and could be preventable, such as most cases of obesity, diabetes, hypertension and COPD. “Whether simply by stopping smoking, controlling hypertension or diabetes, or getting up and walking more, anything that makes the population healthier will prepare us better for the next pandemic,” Bhattacharya and Memoli said. The pair concluded that the best preparation for the next pandemic is to make America healthy again. Additional details Bhattacharya and Memoli warned that hunting for and creating new pathogens through dangerous gain-of-function research increases the risk of accidental outbreaks. “Rather, we must improve our understanding of the pathogens that we know cause disease in humans now, without speculating about hypothetical risks,” Bhattacharya and Memoli advised. “We should develop better prevention and treatment strategies for these existing pathogens.” SUGGESTED STORIES Heart attacks no longer the leading cause of heart disease deaths Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the U.S., but the types of heart conditions causing those deaths are changing. While deaths from heart attacks have dropped significantly over the past five decades, fatalities from other forms of heart disease — especially heart Read more Momentum grows to modernize menopause care as FDA weighs new guidance The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may soon make changes to what is known as the “black box warning” on hormone replacement therapy (HRT) for women in menopause. Commissioner Dr. Martin Makary recently said the FDA is having “serious discussions” about the warnin Read more Committee takes unexpected turn on COVID vaccine for pregnant women The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) quietly reversed an earlier decision by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. concerning COVID vaccine recommendations for pregnant women. A Read more
Heart attacks no longer the leading cause of heart disease deaths Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the U.S., but the types of heart conditions causing those deaths are changing. While deaths from heart attacks have dropped significantly over the past five decades, fatalities from other forms of heart disease — especially heart Read more
Momentum grows to modernize menopause care as FDA weighs new guidance The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may soon make changes to what is known as the “black box warning” on hormone replacement therapy (HRT) for women in menopause. Commissioner Dr. Martin Makary recently said the FDA is having “serious discussions” about the warnin Read more
Committee takes unexpected turn on COVID vaccine for pregnant women The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) quietly reversed an earlier decision by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. concerning COVID vaccine recommendations for pregnant women. A Read more
